2023: A Year Without Summer?
Tonga Volcanic Eruption and Tsunami - Jan 2022 is affecting temperatures. Maps showing increase in atmospheric ash indicates an 18 month solar minimum is ahead, affecting food supplies.
I’ve been hearing about solar minimums for a while, but only recently in relationship to the Tonga Volcanic Eruption. I went searching for more information and discovered David DuByne of ADAPT 2030 on The Solari Report, published by Catherine Austin Fitts.*
DuByne shows credible research, which he says anyone can find, that proves temperatures have dropped since 2021. The Weather Channel says the impact of Tonga is minimal. The South China Morning Post says it [Tonga] could affect climate change resulting in lower temperatures. CarbonBrief says that Tonga could cause temperatures to rise rather than fall. ABC.News.AU states that the results could range from spectacular sunsets to lower temperatures. Why there are conflicting reports is anyone’s guess. The following will explain what DuByne discovered and what he thinks the effects of the Tonga eruptions will be.
Following is a brief report of what I discovered about the Tonga eruption and lower temperatures. You decide for yourself. If you agree, then what steps will you take? (See related stores at the bottom of this post.)
Located in Oceania, Tonga is a small archipelago in the South Pacific Ocean, directly south of Samoa and about two-thirds of the way from Hawaii to New Zealand. A major volcanic eruption occurred there in January 2022.
David DuByne's ADAPT 2030 is a podcast that covers how civilization is affected by energetic mappable cycles on Earth as the Sun repeats its 400-year cycle of low activity. His specific interest is how it affects global crop production. DuByne was already tracking temperature changes before the Tonga volcanic eruption occurred on January 15, 2022.
DuByne’s research demonstrates how global temperatures have dropped comparing 2021 temperatures to 2022, particularly in important agricultural areas. The Southern hemisphere, currently in the summer season, is experiencing lower temperatures that he says has delayed planting and will affect crop yields. The Northern hemisphere will have a similar change in summer temperatures and projected crop yields during 2023. DuByne says to expect food shortages starting 2023 running through 2024. Then, there will be a recovery period for new crop production and supply chains. He further postulates that the government could potentially implement food rationing, and perhaps other opportunistic restrictions, that could begin by the end of 2023. He suggests everyone start preparing now, if they don’t already have emergency food supplies.
Emergency food, sprouting seeds, and general preparedness is always a good idea, given the supply chain disruptions that we are currently experiencing. An additional environmental change, such as impacts from the Tonga volcanic eruptions, could lead to even greater disruptions. We are living in unusual times, so taking steps to prepare is practical and will soften the difficulty if DuByne, and others, are correct in their analysis (below).
Tonga Volcanic Eruption Description
The following description of the eruption comes from OCHA Services - ReliefWeb.
The eruption of the Hunga-Tonga-Hunga-Ha’apai volcano on 15 January 2022 was the largest recorded since the eruption of Krakatoa in 1883. The eruption triggered tsunami waves of up to 15m which struck the west coast of Tongatapu, ‘Eua and Ha’apai. Ashfall covered an area of at least five square kilometres.
Damage to the international and domestic undersea telecommunications meant little information was available from Tonga following the eruption. On 18 January, the Prime Minister of Tonga declared a state of emergency effective from 16 January. The Tongan Government and TRCS requested international assistance.
According to the Smithsonian Institution:
The first recorded eruption at this site occurred in 1912, followed by an eruption in 1937, and then S of the islands in 1988. In 2009 a short eruption increased the land area at Hunga Ha’apai; around this time the two islands were each about 2 km long (BGVN 34:03). During December 2014 through January 2015 eruptive activity added land between the islands, creating the merged Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai island (BGVN 40:01).
Major Surtseyan explosions and eruption plumes were detected beginning in late December 2021, which initially reshaped the central part of the combined island (BGVN 47:02) before stronger activity on 14 January 2022 removed most of the 2014-2015 material. The next day, 15 January, an even larger eruption generated a plume that reached at least 20 km altitude, caused a tsunami across the Pacific Ocean, and triggered shock waves through the atmosphere; only small remnant of the islands remained visible above the ocean surface.
ADAPT 2030 Analysis
David Dubyne: ADAPT 2030 discusses the eruption, similar events in history, temperature comparisons between 2021 and 2022, what we might expect during the Summer of 2023, and going forward over the next 18 months.
You can see recent updates by ADAPT 2030 here.
Related Stories
The Weather Channel: Six Ways the Tonga Volcano Affected the Atmosphere, By Jonathan Belles - January 21, 2022
Will This Eruption Affect the Climate?
It appears so far that the answer is no.
Sulfur dioxide that is released from volcanic eruptions like this one can have a cooling effect on Earth, but Hunga Tonga released a relatively minuscule amount of SO2 compared to other climate-changing eruptions.
Will the Tonga volcano eruption have ripple effects on the global climate?
The eruption sent hundreds of thousands of tonnes of sulphur dioxide into the atmosphere.
The debris entered the stratosphere, where aerosols are expected to persist.
The huge volcanic eruption in the Pacific island nation of Tonga on the weekend may not have been big enough to affect global climate but volcanic eruptions are an underestimated natural cause of climate variability, scientists said.
“A volcanic eruption is a very important factor in climate change and some experts believe it is one of the ultimate factors affecting climate change,” Wei said, adding that in some cases, it can lead to an extreme drop in temperature, “resulting in a series of social impacts”.
This creates a haze layer of tiny droplets that reflects incoming solar radiation, causing a cooling of the Earth’s surface.
The eruption of Tonga’s underwater volcano in 2022 may cause global temperatures to rise, raising the risk that at least one year in the next five will temporarily exceed the 1.5C warming threshold, new research finds.
Key points:
From dramatic sunsets to mud rain, volcanoes can affect the weather in a number of different ways.
If they release enough sulphur dioxide they can cause the global climate to cool.
Based on initial estimates it is not looking like the latest eruption has released enough sulphur dioxide to significantly cool the planet.
*If you’re not familiar with Catherine Austin Fitts, she is an American investment banker and former public official who served as managing director of Dillon, Read & Co. and, during the Presidency of George H.W. Bush, as United States Assistant Secretary of Housing and Urban Development for Housing.